Modelled global fuel characteristics and burned area from 1950 to 2099

This dataset provides global monthly records of burned area and fuel characteristics at ~25 km spatial resolution from 1950–2099. It combines historical observations (1950–2021) with climate-driven projections (2022–2099).

Burned area and fuel characteristics are generated using a machine learning model that integrates climate variables (temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind) from ERA5 (historical) and CMIP6 (projections), together with socioeconomic data including population, land use, and development indicators. This combined approach captures fire weather and fuel drivers, and human influences on fire activity.

Fuel variables include live and dead biomass components for both load and moisture, all modelled to remain consistent with burned area estimates.

Future projections use CMIP6 climate scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), allowing exploration of wildfire activity across different climate and socioeconomic futures.

The dataset uses a uniform grid, variable set, and calendar structure across the historical and projection periods, enabling direct comparison between periods and scenarios.

Intended applications include wildfire risk assessment, fire regime analysis, carbon cycle modelling, and climate impact studies.

This is version 1.0. Future versions will incorporate model improvements and extended temporal coverage.

Data description

Data type

Grid

Projection

Regular latitude-longitude grid

Horizontal coverage

Global

Horizontal resolution

0.25 x 0.25°

Vertical coverage

Surface

Vertical resolution

Single level

Temporal coverage

Historical (1950-2022) Projected (2015-2099)

Temporal resolution

Monthly

Temporal gaps

No gaps

File format

NetCDF4

Conventions

CF-1.9

Versions

1.0

Update frequency

Irregular updates

Spatial gaps

Land Dataset (Ocean points not represented)

Main variables

Name
Units
Description

Burned area

fractional

The burned area represents the predicted burned area fraction of the gridcell (0-1). Burned area can...

Dead foliage load

kg m-2

The dead foliage mass per unit area for all vegetation. The dead foliage is a combination of all dea...

Dead foliage moisture content

Dimensionless

The fuel moisture content as a fractional percentage of dry mass for dead non-woody fuel. From a com...

Dead wood load

kg m-2

The dead wood mass per unit area for all vegetation. The dead wood is a combination of all dead wood...

Dead wood moisture content

Dimensionless

The fuel moisture content as a fractional percentage of dry mass for dead woody fuel. From a combina...

High vegetation leaf area index

m2 m-2

The leaf area index for the high vegetation, typically the forested fraction of the grid cell.

Live fuel moisture content

%

The live fuel moisture content as a percentage of dry mass for live vegetation fuel. This is a combi...

Live leaf load

kg m-2

The live leaf mass per unit area for all vegetation. The live leaf is a combination of all living le...

Live wood load

kg m-2

The live wood mass per unit area for all vegetation. The live wood is a combination of all living wo...

Low vegetation leaf area index

m2 m-2

The leaf area index for the low vegetation, typically the grassland fraction of the grid cell.